They can be pretty from afar |
We are at an interesting crossroads in history where a
perfect storm of crises is going to create significant, rapid change. Many commonplace parts of modern
society will hit their peak and then not instantly disappear, but undergo a
decline. How slow or swift the decline will be depend on the circumstances as
well as various levels of corruption and/or government intervention (assuming
the two aren’t synonymous.) Sometimes the peak may be a temporary one, if we
can manage to reorganize ourselves and our resources in a sensible manner. Some of the descents, however, are
permanent or at least will last for several generations.
The financial crisis is all around us and will last at least
another five years, if not ten. World Peak Oil
already happened in 2005 (U.S. Peak Oil was in 1971), and world crude oil production
is in gentle decline hidden by demand drop due to the recession. The oil crunch
will strongly hit in 2013 (or sooner, if anyone decides to airstrike Iran.) And
then there’s climate change, the ultimate humdinger that’s awfully hard to
predict anything about except that it will likely cause drought, famine,
flooding, forced migrations, massive species extinction and a lot of
death. But given its uncertainty
and longer timeframe (ooh, maybe fifteen or twenty years before the real onslaught of
effects) let’s not worry about that one just yet.
Let’s get back to our immediate Peaks—Finance and Oil—and
the other Peaks related to them that have appeared or are soon to appear on the
near horizon. Now perhaps you
believe Peak Oil is a hoax made up by oil companies and/or environmentalists.
Perhaps you think the financial crisis is on the way to recovery and another
happy finance bubble is around the corner. Even so, just as an intellectual
exercise, let’s pretend there’s less oil and financial wealth ahead for the vast majority of the human race. What would be the result?
Less liquidity, less energy, for starters. Which will lead to:
*Peak Credit, which will lead to
US Consumer Debt Levels |
*Peak Consumer Debt
*Peak GDP
*Peak Housing
*Peak College,
*Peak Exotic Vacations,
*Peak Vegas
and *Peak Stuff.
(Basically, any activity or item financed by home equity
loans for the past decade will shrink.) This will lead to
*Peak Self-Storage,
*Peak Housing Square Footage
*Peak Lawns and Peak Yards
Which leads to *Peak Lawn Gnomes, *Peak Pink Flamingos, *Peak Lawn Mowers and *Peak
Lawn Pesticides
It doesn’t necessarily lead to Peak Remodeling. Nor Peak
Housing Density. Nor Peak Urban
Infill. Nor Peak Family Camping. Nor Peak Knowledge, Peak Community College, or Peak Internet
Connectivity. Anything that can be
transferred digitally—data, news, movies, video games, magazines, books, music,
etc.--probably will not peak soon, though its hard copy form probably already
has. This is not to say there will
be much profit in any digital media, however.
As the rate of oil pumped out of the earth slows below
demand, all oil-importing countries are going to see some significant
shifts. They will include:
*Peak Plastics, (which will lead to Peak Product Packaging,
Peak Recycling, and Peak Cheap Plastic #@$% from China)
*Peak Paved Roads and Peak Asphalt
*Peak Internal Combustion Engines
*Peak Cars (which will lead to Peak Home Garages, Peak Auto
Mechanics, Peak Gas Stations)
*Peak Commute Distance and Vehicle Miles Traveled
US Vehicle Miles Traveled |
*Peak Auto Weight
*Peak Trucking Freight
*Peak Bottled Water
*Peak Soda Pop
*Peak Human Body Fat
*Peak Suburbia, Strip Malls and Parking Lots
*Peak Blueberries in February from South America
*Peak Chain Restaurants
*Peak Resorts
*Peak Downhill Skiing
*Peak Gasoline-powered toys (jetskis, speed boats,
snowmobiles, etc. except where they provide actual economic benefit.)
*Peak RVs
*Peak Air Conditioning
*Peak Airports, Planes and Air Travel
But not peak rail, bicycle, boat travel or freight. Not Peak Public Transit. Not peak energy efficiency. Not peak alternative energy. Not peak vegetable gardens,
chicken and goat raising, or beekeeping. Not Peak Food, Water, or Energy Prices.
Not Peak Ceiling Fans, Peak Attic Insulation, Peak Solar Hot Water Systems. Not
Peak Resiliency or Peak Self-Sufficiency by any means.
US Health Costs compared to rest of world |
As people and governments grow poorer we will soon
experience
*Peak Healthcare
*Peak Pharmaceuticals
*Peak Lifespan in the US
*Peak ADD and ADHD
*Peak tranquilizers and anti-depressants
*Peak Prisons
*Peak Medicare, Social Security and Welfare
*Peak Washington D.C.
But not Peak Food Stamps (otherwise too much social unrest).
Probably not Peak Lottery as it’s a way for people to gamble cheaply. Not Peak
Retirement Age (for a while). And not Peak Family, Peak Community, Peak Relationships. These will be on the increase.
Unfortunately, not Peak Homeless, Peak Crime, or Peak Disease. Sadly, probably
not Peak World Population until Peak Famine hits first. Does Peak Energy lead to Peak
Fertilizer which very quickly leads to Peak Food, even here in the U.S.? Let’s hope it doesn’t come to
that. Long term, Peak Arable Land
due to climate change is going to be bad enough.
As I said above, many of these peaks don’t have to be
permanent. They could be temporary
downslopes creating local peaks until we retrench, reorganize in a way that
makes sense given our resources, and then we can go forward again. Some of these Peaks in my view are
beneficial; some are going to cause a lot of suffering that is doubly sad due
to the fact that, with some foresight, we could have avoided them. In general
with this list I’m not saying what should happen, just what is likely to happen
as I gaze into the Peak Crystal Ball.
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